Skip to content
U.S. Transhumanist Party – Official Website
  • Home
  • Posts
  • Values
  • Platform
  • Leadership
  • Advisors
  • Candidates
  • Highlights
  • FAQ
  • States & Allies
  • Free Membership
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Search Icon

U.S. Transhumanist Party – Official Website

U.S. Transhumanist Party – PUTTING SCIENCE, HEALTH, & TECHNOLOGY AT THE FOREFRONT OF AMERICAN POLITICS

2022: The Year of the Great Filter – Article by Gennady Stolyarov II

2022: The Year of the Great Filter – Article by Gennady Stolyarov II

May 16, 2022 Gennady Stolyarov II Comments 3 comments

logo_bg

Gennady Stolyarov II


2022 is the year of the Great Filter. There has never been a more dangerous time for our species before, and there will not be again, if we survive this year.

The war in Ukraine has brought the world to the edge of nuclear calamity, because neither side wishes to negotiate or make concessions. The Russian regime makes reckless nuclear threats, Western/NATO powers recklessly ignore them, and continue to supply offensive weapons to Ukrainian forces, whose ideology favors recklessly dying for their country instead of prudently choosing to live for themselves. The risks of especially unintended, accidental escalation continue to accumulate the longer this war drags on with no clear end in sight.

The one ray of hope in all this is that I am firmly convinced that this is a unique, non-repeatable situation. If humankind can avoid extinction arising from reckless escalation here, then our species will never be in this much existential danger again, at least not from manmade causes. Here I provide my top ten reasons for holding this outlook.

1. Vladimir Putin’s misguided ideology and complete misunderstanding of the military and geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine led to this disaster of an invasion, but Putin is not in good health and thus his days in office are numbered. Any other person in power would not be locked into Putin’s must-win situation and may likely try to undo the damage and even try to bolster his reputation for doing so. The key is to avoid escalation while Putin remains in power, to prevent Putin from seeing no reason not to take the world down with him. If we wait this out, Putin will either succumb to his illness or be “encouraged” to retire by his inner circle. But in order to avoid the scenario where he behaves like a cornered rat, we need to allow this to happen on its own.

2. The stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a uniquely insane climate of public opinion, including in the West (while also contributing to the irrationality of Putin). Norms of civility and the valuation of peace have been significantly eroded, particularly among the neoconservatives, the establishment Left, and nationalists of all stripes (Russian, Ukrainian, Polish, Baltic, et al.). Accordingly, the preponderance of warmongers among the populations of Europe and America is at a historic high. However, in the coming years, as the pandemic recedes and people gradually regain a sense of normalcy, war fervor will subside, since most of the same people were not advocating war 10 years ago and, under the right circumstances, could become largely peaceful again. Americans were overwhelmingly tired of war through 2021. If we wait this out, war fatigue will become the dominant view again not too long from now.

3. We were on the verge of the Transhuman Era circa 2015 based on the trajectories of various emerging technologies. This, however, was derailed by the Left-Right hyperpolarization from late 2015 onward, by the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 onward, and now by the war in Ukraine in 2022. All of these developments benefited the legacy ruling elite, whom the Transhuman Era would render obsolete; they used these crises to turn ordinary people and innovators against one another, when we should have all been working in concert to build the Transhuman Era. However, if we avoid world war and nuclear annihilation now, then the progress of emerging technologies will still gradually displace the legacy ruling elite and inaugurate the Transhuman Era, at which time humans will become too prosperous and enlightened to be willing to tolerate the risk of species extinction.

4. Averting nuclear war in 2022 will lead to the widespread recognition of how close we came to calamity from the potential of a pointless local conflict to engulf the world. The phrase “Never again” will henceforth be applied to nuclear brinkmanship, and a concerted push for worldwide nuclear disarmament could be made by a coalition of activist groups who are already sympathetic to this cause. They will have a lot more political capital once people are able to take a breath and come to their senses.

5. Artificial intelligence and nanotechnology will never pose the same existential risk as nuclear weapons, because their modes of functioning are much more sophisticated, and thus there will be many more places along the chain of events leading to calamity where human intervention could stop that chain of events. AI and nanotechnology of the future will be “smart”, which will make them safer. Nuclear weapons are “dumb”, combined with awesome destructive capacity, which makes them the most dangerous technology of all history, past and future.

6. Climate change, too, is a much milder and even non-existential risk, compared to nuclear war. This is a risk that will play out over decades, allowing for mitigation and reversal through emerging technologies, as well as adaptation to any lasting climate shifts. This is not to say that climate change would inflict no damage, but rather that the damage would be far from enough to destroy the species or even significantly slow down our technological and economic progress. If we can avoid nuclear war in 2022 (which would also bring about the worst climate change of all – a nuclear winter), then it will be much more feasible to devote more resources toward the development and deployment of technologies that would counteract climate change.

7. For all of the irrational panic regarding the alleged threat of China, the fact is that China has orders of magnitude fewer nuclear weapons than Russia or the United States. The Chinese government knows that it would lose any nuclear war decisively. Hence, China will never attempt or provoke a nuclear war. When it comes to the risk of civilization-ending nuclear war, only a conflict between the United States and Russia would pose that risk. Moreover, China is so globally interconnected through trade, especially with the United States, that it would never risk a military conflict which would be tantamount to economic suicide.

8. If nuclear war is avoided in 2022, Putin’s regime will atrophy by 2025 (as long as the Western powers do not try to overthrow him or invade Russia, an attempt which would paradoxically strengthen Putin’s regime, just as the sanctions against Russia have done by rallying Russians through a sense of being attacked and targeted by the West). Once Putin’s regime atrophies and is discredited within Russia, it will be possible to support more humane politicians in Russia, who might continue the policies of Gorbachev and seek at least a phased nuclear disarmament. As noted above, among geopolitical conflicts, only the US-Russia nuclear standoff poses an existential risk to the human species. Nuclear disarmament of Russia, or even a determined move in that direction, would essentially resolve that risk.

9. With enough time during which peace prevails, the Transhuman Era will see the creation of technologies that would help avert other existential risks, such as asteroids, supervolcanoes, and any yet-unforeseen consequences of future technologies. Existential risk will decline with each peaceful year from now on.

10. Surviving 2022 will give humankind an impetus to pursue the rejection of the Cold War mentality, of militant nationalism (especially ethnic nationalism, which is the most pernicious), and of Left-Right polarization. Getting rid of those three terrible mindsets will be largely enough to render most of humankind constructive again. It is only because of those mindsets that we have not reached the Transhuman Era already. Just as the aftermath of World War II rendered certain ideologies unacceptable, so I hope that the narrow avoidance of World War III will render Cold Warriorism, Left-Right militancy, and ethno-nationalism unacceptable in America and Europe at the very least. (The rest of the world could help us in overcoming these perilous mindsets. One consequence I hope to see in the coming decades is a multi-polar world with a greater prominence for Asian, African, and Latin American countries, to broaden our perspectives on the considerations that should matter for the future of humanity.)

So, essentially we just have to survive 2022 without a nuclear war in order for history to turn toward the long arc of progress once again. However, we absolutely have to survive 2022 – and this will entirely depend on whether public opinion will be able to restrain the war fervor of Western hawks in particular. A combination of reckless overconfidence, intransigence, and moral self-righteousness (on both sides) has placed our species into unparalleled danger. Perhaps this was the kind of moment from which many alien civilizations have not been able to emerge successfully – hence, one potential explanation for Fermi’s paradox. Will we have enough prudence and basic love of life to avoid that fate? We will find out in the next several months. If we pass this Great Filter, a future of boundless possibility and growth awaits our species. Do not throw this future away over a local conflict. What humans do now will be most consequential for the future of the entire universe.

Gennady Stolyarov II is Chairman of the U.S. Transhumanist Party.

This essay may be freely reproduced using the Creative Commons Attribution Share-Alike International 4.0 License, which requires that credit be given to the author.


Guest Articles
Artificial Intelligence, China, Cold War, COVID-19, existential risk, extinction, Fermi's Paradox, G. Stolyarov II, Gennady Stolyarov II, Great Filter, irrationality, nanotechnology, nationalism, NATO, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, pandemic, polarization, Russia, Russia-Ukraine War, Russo-Ukrainian War, Transhuman Era, Transhumanism, Ukraine, united states, Vladimir Putin, war

Post navigation

PREVIOUS
The Geroscience Network: Determined to Slow Aging through Medical Science – Article by Reason
NEXT
The Hostile Takeover of Our Technological Future – Article by Adam Barratt

3 thoughts on “2022: The Year of the Great Filter – Article by Gennady Stolyarov II”

  1. Jess H. Brewer says:
    May 30, 2022 at 8:17 pm

    Well-written manifesto! The problem with manifestos is that they are always based on religious beliefs — in this case that human enhancement can only make things better. I sure hope you’re right about that, and I plan to get all the enhancements I can; but I anticipate some problems with any cutting-edge technology. I also disagree that nuclear war would be worse than unchecked global climate change; but I know I’m in the minority on that topic.

    Reply
  2. Pingback: 2022: The Year of the Great Filter – Gennady Stolyarov II – Transhumanist Party Enlightenment Salon - Corruption Buzz
  3. François Joinneau says:
    April 10, 2024 at 9:03 pm

    Well done, Gennady!
    Retrospectively, where are we now?
    Do you still think of China as a peaceful, friendly entity?
    I believe it is not to late to build a Diplomatic Regency and put to test the reality of a “peaceful”, friendly China.
    If China accept that Diplomatic Regency to happen, then yes, peace is possible.
    But even in case of rejection, India and the whole of south America and the whole of Africa will have the last say. Diplomatic Regency is the most powerful sophisticated tool invented to force Peace to happen. Not only in Ukraine but everywhere.

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Social Media

Constitution of the U.S. Transhumanist Party

Transhumanist Bill of Rights – Version 3.0

U.S. Transhumanist Party Facebook Feed

Free Transhumanist Symbols

Guidelines for Community Conduct

SUBMIT A POST

Subject Categories

    - Life Extension
    - Artificial Intelligence
    - Space Colonization
    - Robotics
    - Biotechnology
    - Nanotechnology
    - Autonomous Vehicles
    - 3D Printing
    - Cryptocurrencies
    - Vertical Farming
    - Universal Basic Income
    - Existential Risk
    - Rationality

Hashtags

    #USTranshumanistParty, #TranshumanistParty, #TranshumanistPolitics, #TomRoss2024, #RossTwedt2024

Recent Posts

  • Why Is Trump So Intent on Sending Illegal Immigrant Noncriminals to Prison Camps in El Salvador? – Article by Alex Nowrasteh
  • Tribute to John Kerecz (1961 – 2025)
  • The Copenhagen Consensus – How to Feed the Hungry – Article by Zach Richardson
  • The Issue of Food – Article by Luis Arroyo
  • Results of Platform Vote #9 and Vote on Proposals on Investigations and Emergency Declarations; Adopted Sections of the U.S. Transhumanist Party Constitution
  • Official Ballot Options for Platform Vote #9 and Proposals on Investigations and Emergency Declarations
  • Gennady Stolyarov I and Gennady Stolyarov II Discuss the Progress of Information Technology (2019)
  • Immortality: My Quest and Reasons for Seeking an Indefinite Lifespan – Article by Albi Ndoni
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party General Discussion Thread for 2025
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party Statement on the Murder of Brian Thompson
  • News Regarding THPedia, the Transhumanist Encyclopedia for Everyone – Invitation to Contribute – Statement by Gennady Stolyarov II
  • The Transhumanist Council: A Worthy Effort for a New Umbrella Transhumanist Organization
  • Report on the Montana Right to Try Act – Analysis by Shamar White
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party Comments on the Citizen Petition by Age Reversal Unity to Declare Aging a Disease
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party Chairman’s Eighth Anniversary Message
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party Statement on the Outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
  • Preliminary Member-Reported Write-In Totals for Tom Ross and Daniel Twedt in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party and Nevada Transhumanist Party Positions on 2024 Nevada Ballot Questions
  • Where to Write In Tom Ross for President of the United States – and How to Make Sure Your Vote Counts
  • Celebration of U.S. Transhumanist Party 10th Anniversary and International Longevity Month

Recent Comments

  • R. Nicholas Starr on U.S. Transhumanist Party General Discussion Thread for 2025
  • Luis Arroyo on Tribute to John Kerecz (1961 – 2025)
  • shamar on U.S. Transhumanist Party General Discussion Thread for 2025
  • Gennady Stolyarov II on U.S. Transhumanist Party General Discussion Thread for 2025
  • Theo Ibrahim on The Issue of Food – Article by Luis Arroyo

Archives

  • June 2025 (1)
  • May 2025 (1)
  • March 2025 (3)
  • February 2025 (1)
  • January 2025 (3)
  • December 2024 (2)
  • November 2024 (6)
  • October 2024 (3)
  • September 2024 (2)
  • August 2024 (5)
  • July 2024 (4)
  • June 2024 (3)
  • May 2024 (1)
  • March 2024 (1)
  • February 2024 (1)
  • January 2024 (8)
  • October 2023 (11)
  • September 2023 (6)
  • August 2023 (1)
  • July 2023 (4)
  • May 2023 (3)
  • April 2023 (3)
  • March 2023 (2)
  • February 2023 (12)
  • January 2023 (23)
  • December 2022 (2)
  • November 2022 (2)
  • October 2022 (3)
  • August 2022 (3)
  • July 2022 (2)
  • May 2022 (6)
  • March 2022 (3)
  • February 2022 (4)
  • January 2022 (7)
  • December 2021 (11)
  • November 2021 (4)
  • October 2021 (5)
  • September 2021 (2)
  • August 2021 (2)
  • July 2021 (3)
  • June 2021 (2)
  • May 2021 (6)
  • April 2021 (7)
  • March 2021 (4)
  • February 2021 (5)
  • January 2021 (6)
  • December 2020 (10)
  • November 2020 (4)
  • October 2020 (2)
  • September 2020 (1)
  • August 2020 (4)
  • July 2020 (5)
  • June 2020 (6)
  • May 2020 (3)
  • April 2020 (3)
  • March 2020 (6)
  • February 2020 (1)
  • January 2020 (6)
  • December 2019 (3)
  • November 2019 (2)
  • October 2019 (9)
  • September 2019 (10)
  • August 2019 (12)
  • July 2019 (18)
  • June 2019 (17)
  • May 2019 (12)
  • April 2019 (8)
  • March 2019 (12)
  • February 2019 (7)
  • January 2019 (13)
  • December 2018 (9)
  • November 2018 (5)
  • October 2018 (9)
  • September 2018 (5)
  • August 2018 (10)
  • July 2018 (13)
  • June 2018 (14)
  • May 2018 (8)
  • April 2018 (8)
  • March 2018 (10)
  • February 2018 (15)
  • January 2018 (17)
  • December 2017 (8)
  • November 2017 (17)
  • October 2017 (19)
  • September 2017 (11)
  • August 2017 (11)
  • July 2017 (16)
  • June 2017 (15)
  • May 2017 (10)
  • April 2017 (7)
  • March 2017 (8)
  • February 2017 (16)
  • January 2017 (8)
  • December 2016 (6)
  • November 2016 (5)

Categories

  • Allied Projects
  • Announcements
  • Art
  • Candidates
  • Debate
  • Discussion Panels
  • Distributed Computing
  • Exposure Periods
  • Foreign Ambassadors
  • General Discussion
  • Guest Articles
  • Inclusion
  • Interviews
  • Legislative Analysis
  • Official Ballots
  • Petitions
  • Platform
  • Presentations
  • Press Releases
  • Research
  • Sample Ballots
  • Science Fiction
  • Statements
  • Tolerance
  • Virtual Enlightenment Salons
  • Vote Results
  • Working Groups

Victor Run Virtual Race – June 4-6, 2021

Historical Archive – 2020 U.S. Presidential Ticket – Charlie Kam and Liz Parrish

© 2025   Copyright - U.S. Transhumanist Party - All Rights Reserved | WordPress design: Art Ramon Paintings