Skip to content
U.S. Transhumanist Party – Official Website
  • Home
  • Posts
  • Values
  • Platform
  • Leadership
  • Advisors
  • Candidates
  • Highlights
  • FAQ
  • States & Allies
  • Free Membership
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Search Icon

U.S. Transhumanist Party – Official Website

U.S. Transhumanist Party – PUTTING SCIENCE, HEALTH, & TECHNOLOGY AT THE FOREFRONT OF AMERICAN POLITICS

Unknown Knowns 1 – Probability: A Series of Excerpts from “Vital Foresight”, Chapter 5, by David Wood

Unknown Knowns 1 – Probability: A Series of Excerpts from “Vital Foresight”, Chapter 5, by David Wood

January 1, 2022 David Wood Comments 0 Comment

David Wood


Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.

– Donald Rumsfeld

Editor’s Note: In the above quote, then-secretary Rumsfeld forgot perhaps the most important category: “unknown knowns”. Chapter 5 of David Wood’s Vital Foresight discusses many items in this final category. The following highly-condensed 5000-character excerpt includes some of my favorite paragraphs, connected in a more-or-less logical manner. There was much supporting these paragraphs that was removed for sake of quick digestibility, and the reader would be amiss to not purchase and read David’s full work, and leave a 5-star review. This series should comprise several short essays, but David’s full work can be found here.

~ Zach Richardson, Director of Publication, United States Transhumanist Party, January 2022


…In brief: to evaluate the likelihood of a state of affairs, such as someone being ill with a given disease, or them being guilty of a particular crime, you need more than just some evidence that seems to confirm that state of affairs. You also need to know the probability of a “false positive”, in which the evidence has arisen even without the state of affairs applying. That probability of a false positive depends, in turn, on assumptions about various background statistics known as “prior probabilities”. In effect, people often naively assume that these prior probabilities should be split 50:50. But the case of wrongly insisting that someone should quarantine, based on what was a false positive test, shows this to be a mistake.

Because many judges and lawyers lack an understanding of Bayes’ Theorem, questionable verdicts have been reached in a number of court cases. It is likely that other cases feature similarly unsafe conclusions whose dubious nature has not even been noticed; such is the extent of poor understanding of probabilities.

Thoughtful application of Bayes’ Theorem has produced some stunning results. Following the unexplained 2009 disappearance of Air France flight AF 447 while it flew over the Atlantic from Rio de Janeiro toward Paris, teams of wreckage recovery experts had failed on four occasions over the course of two years to locate the remains of the airplane. Then a team of statisticians were brought into the project, to reconsider all the information from the past failed searches. Putting the data into formulae that included Bayes’ Theorem, the team gave their reasons for focusing the search in a particular area of the seabed. Within two weeks of this new search, the wreckage of the flight was found – along with the black-box recorder and the critical information it included.

A previous application of those same search methods had discovered the wreckage of a ship that had been missing since 1857, the SS Central America. Because that ship was carrying gold worth fifty million dollars at present-day prices, numerous searches had been conducted for it over the decades. Finally, a young mathematician called Lawrence Stone used Bayes’ Theorem, along with results from all previous searches, to narrow down the search region, leading to the recovery in September 1988 of more than one ton of gold bars and coins. It was the same researcher, Stone, that headed the team of statisticians who found AF 447. Stone has stressed the advantages of rigorous mathematical approaches over “ad hoc methods” that “delayed success” by years. Our intuitions, expressed in these “ad hoc methods”, are too prone to mislead us in complicated situations.

Our assessment of the credibility of forecasts of the future likewise need to move beyond ad hoc intuitions to a more rigorous basis. If the BBC weather forecast says there’s a 71% probability of rain tomorrow, but the day stays dry throughout, does this mean we should stop listening to BBC weather forecasts? After all, the forecast seemed confident.

Again, if a military specialist forecasts a 15% chance of nuclear war happening in the next ten years, but no such war breaks out during that time, does this mean we should disregard any future predictions the same forecaster makes regarding an increased likelihood of nuclear war?

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists don’t give numerical probabilities for their forecasts, but instead use the metaphor of the hands on a clock. In 1947, they launched their “Doomsday Clock”, with its hands set to seven minutes before midnight, apparently close to an imminent global catastrophe. In 1949, after the Soviet Union tested its first atomic bomb, the hands of the clock were advanced four minutes. Then in 1952, the Soviet Union tested a hydrogen bomb – which is much more powerful than an atomic bomb – much sooner than western-based observers had anticipated. The Korean War was still in progress, and US President Harry Truman had been considering the use of nuclear weapons. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists nudged the hands of the clock forward by another minute, leaving just two minutes before annihilation. Given that no such annihilation has come to pass, can we now ignore any subsequent updates from that Bulletin?

Not so fast. This is not a matter of truth versus falsity. It’s a matter of statistics. When the weather forecast predicts rain with a probability of 71%, on many different occasions, the actual number of times rain occurs is pretty close to 71%. We would be foolish to follow any instincts that told us to ignore a forecaster just because of one variant outcome. Even if there are many cases of apparently wrong predictions, that would still be compatible if the forecaster gave a low probability each time. Even if the probability is low, we should still pay attention to that forecast if:

  • The predicted impact is high;
  • The forecasters have followed appropriate processes in reaching their prediction;
  • The forecasters have updated their models in the light of what happened since their earlier forecasts.

… Alongside our inabilities to think seriously about exponentials and probabilities, we have inherited some dangerous mental assumptions regarding the reliability of our own thinking processes. We are over-confident, insufficiently willing to seek evidence that would challenge our current ideas, and too prone to spend time exchanging self-reinforcing views with people who think the same as us.

David Wood is Chair of the London Futurists. 


Guest Articles
Bayes' Theorem, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, cognitive biases, David Wood, Donald Rumsfeld, Doomsday Clock, evidence, existential risk, exponential change, falsehoods, foresight, futurism, Lawrence Stone, nuclear war, nuclear weapons, over-confidence, prediction, prior probabilities, probability, truth, Vital Foresight

Post navigation

PREVIOUS
U.S. Transhumanist Party Virtual Enlightenment Salon with Zach Richardson, Jason Geringer, and Ben Ballweg –July 25, 2021
NEXT
2022 New Year’s Message by Victor Bjoerk

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Social Media

Constitution of the U.S. Transhumanist Party

Transhumanist Bill of Rights – Version 3.0

U.S. Transhumanist Party Facebook Feed

Free Transhumanist Symbols

Guidelines for Community Conduct

SUBMIT A POST

Subject Categories

    - Life Extension
    - Artificial Intelligence
    - Space Colonization
    - Robotics
    - Biotechnology
    - Nanotechnology
    - Autonomous Vehicles
    - 3D Printing
    - Cryptocurrencies
    - Vertical Farming
    - Universal Basic Income
    - Existential Risk
    - Rationality

Hashtags

    #USTranshumanistParty, #TranshumanistParty, #TranshumanistPolitics, #TomRoss2024, #RossTwedt2024

Recent Posts

  • Why Is Trump So Intent on Sending Illegal Immigrant Noncriminals to Prison Camps in El Salvador? – Article by Alex Nowrasteh
  • Tribute to John Kerecz (1961 – 2025)
  • The Copenhagen Consensus – How to Feed the Hungry – Article by Zach Richardson
  • The Issue of Food – Article by Luis Arroyo
  • Results of Platform Vote #9 and Vote on Proposals on Investigations and Emergency Declarations; Adopted Sections of the U.S. Transhumanist Party Constitution
  • Official Ballot Options for Platform Vote #9 and Proposals on Investigations and Emergency Declarations
  • Gennady Stolyarov I and Gennady Stolyarov II Discuss the Progress of Information Technology (2019)
  • Immortality: My Quest and Reasons for Seeking an Indefinite Lifespan – Article by Albi Ndoni
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party General Discussion Thread for 2025
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party Statement on the Murder of Brian Thompson
  • News Regarding THPedia, the Transhumanist Encyclopedia for Everyone – Invitation to Contribute – Statement by Gennady Stolyarov II
  • The Transhumanist Council: A Worthy Effort for a New Umbrella Transhumanist Organization
  • Report on the Montana Right to Try Act – Analysis by Shamar White
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party Comments on the Citizen Petition by Age Reversal Unity to Declare Aging a Disease
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party Chairman’s Eighth Anniversary Message
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party Statement on the Outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
  • Preliminary Member-Reported Write-In Totals for Tom Ross and Daniel Twedt in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
  • U.S. Transhumanist Party and Nevada Transhumanist Party Positions on 2024 Nevada Ballot Questions
  • Where to Write In Tom Ross for President of the United States – and How to Make Sure Your Vote Counts
  • Celebration of U.S. Transhumanist Party 10th Anniversary and International Longevity Month

Recent Comments

  • R. Nicholas Starr on U.S. Transhumanist Party General Discussion Thread for 2025
  • Luis Arroyo on Tribute to John Kerecz (1961 – 2025)
  • shamar on U.S. Transhumanist Party General Discussion Thread for 2025
  • Gennady Stolyarov II on U.S. Transhumanist Party General Discussion Thread for 2025
  • Theo Ibrahim on The Issue of Food – Article by Luis Arroyo

Archives

  • June 2025 (1)
  • May 2025 (1)
  • March 2025 (3)
  • February 2025 (1)
  • January 2025 (3)
  • December 2024 (2)
  • November 2024 (6)
  • October 2024 (3)
  • September 2024 (2)
  • August 2024 (5)
  • July 2024 (4)
  • June 2024 (3)
  • May 2024 (1)
  • March 2024 (1)
  • February 2024 (1)
  • January 2024 (8)
  • October 2023 (11)
  • September 2023 (6)
  • August 2023 (1)
  • July 2023 (4)
  • May 2023 (3)
  • April 2023 (3)
  • March 2023 (2)
  • February 2023 (12)
  • January 2023 (23)
  • December 2022 (2)
  • November 2022 (2)
  • October 2022 (3)
  • August 2022 (3)
  • July 2022 (2)
  • May 2022 (6)
  • March 2022 (3)
  • February 2022 (4)
  • January 2022 (7)
  • December 2021 (11)
  • November 2021 (4)
  • October 2021 (5)
  • September 2021 (2)
  • August 2021 (2)
  • July 2021 (3)
  • June 2021 (2)
  • May 2021 (6)
  • April 2021 (7)
  • March 2021 (4)
  • February 2021 (5)
  • January 2021 (6)
  • December 2020 (10)
  • November 2020 (4)
  • October 2020 (2)
  • September 2020 (1)
  • August 2020 (4)
  • July 2020 (5)
  • June 2020 (6)
  • May 2020 (3)
  • April 2020 (3)
  • March 2020 (6)
  • February 2020 (1)
  • January 2020 (6)
  • December 2019 (3)
  • November 2019 (2)
  • October 2019 (9)
  • September 2019 (10)
  • August 2019 (12)
  • July 2019 (18)
  • June 2019 (17)
  • May 2019 (12)
  • April 2019 (8)
  • March 2019 (12)
  • February 2019 (7)
  • January 2019 (13)
  • December 2018 (9)
  • November 2018 (5)
  • October 2018 (9)
  • September 2018 (5)
  • August 2018 (10)
  • July 2018 (13)
  • June 2018 (14)
  • May 2018 (8)
  • April 2018 (8)
  • March 2018 (10)
  • February 2018 (15)
  • January 2018 (17)
  • December 2017 (8)
  • November 2017 (17)
  • October 2017 (19)
  • September 2017 (11)
  • August 2017 (11)
  • July 2017 (16)
  • June 2017 (15)
  • May 2017 (10)
  • April 2017 (7)
  • March 2017 (8)
  • February 2017 (16)
  • January 2017 (8)
  • December 2016 (6)
  • November 2016 (5)

Categories

  • Allied Projects
  • Announcements
  • Art
  • Candidates
  • Debate
  • Discussion Panels
  • Distributed Computing
  • Exposure Periods
  • Foreign Ambassadors
  • General Discussion
  • Guest Articles
  • Inclusion
  • Interviews
  • Legislative Analysis
  • Official Ballots
  • Petitions
  • Platform
  • Presentations
  • Press Releases
  • Research
  • Sample Ballots
  • Science Fiction
  • Statements
  • Tolerance
  • Virtual Enlightenment Salons
  • Vote Results
  • Working Groups

Victor Run Virtual Race – June 4-6, 2021

Historical Archive – 2020 U.S. Presidential Ticket – Charlie Kam and Liz Parrish

© 2025   Copyright - U.S. Transhumanist Party - All Rights Reserved | WordPress design: Art Ramon Paintings