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Pluslectic – The Dialectic of Positive Feedback – Article by Pedro Villanueva

Pluslectic – The Dialectic of Positive Feedback – Article by Pedro Villanueva

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Pedro Villanueva


Editor’s Note: In this guest article, Pedro Villanueva outlines a new concept of pluslectic philosophy, which endeavors to be a method of thinking and forward-looking feedback (feedforward) which would characterize future advanced civilizations of enhanced humans. The U.S. Transhumanist Party publishes this article to motivate thought regarding how philosophical systems would need to evolve in order to recognize, characterize, and provide ethical guidance in a world of enhanced, augmented “plus-humans” – i.e., transhumansm. It appears that article was originally written in Spanish. The author’s translation from Spanish to English was edited further in a way that sought to preserve and reflect the author’s intent while restructuring various sentences to reflect the English rules of grammar. 

~ Gennady Stolyarov II, Chairman, United States Transhumanist Party, January 14, 2018

What is the pluslectic? The term stems from the Latin “plus”, signifying “more”, “added”, and “positive”.

A philosophical method that differs from the classical dialectic of Hegel and Marx, pluslectic philosophy values the input of the positive facts of growth throughout the world.

First think what happens with society and history. Our world over time since the beginning of civilization has been almost dystopian, as said Slavoj Zizek, […] “The real thing is a grain of sand that prevents us from a functioning unimpeded; a shock traumatic that disrupts the balance of the symbolic universe of the subject.” [1]

With the development of capitalism, develops also nihilism; it refers to a “belief” or faith that all values are meaningless or useless and that nothing can be really known or communicated, since humans can never know the truth and should leave social deception.

Nihilists believe in these 3 things:

1. There is not reasonable proof of the existence of a “supreme ruler” or a “creator”.

2. The “moral truth” is unknown.

3. The universal ethics is impossible.

Nietzsche says the following: “What matter to me others? Others are only human. Be superior to humanity by the force, by the temple, for contempt… ” [2]

In the 20th century and early 21st century, there has deepened the social disorientation and the existence of a society without sense, with the philosophy of the postmodernism of Lyotard. Lipovetsky examines a “postmodern” society marked, according to him, by a separation of the public sphere, and at the same time a loss of the sense of the large collective institutions (social and political) and “open” culture based on the regulation of human relations. Grace, hedonism, customization of the processes of socialization, permissive education, sexual liberation, focus on mood all characterize such a society.

This vision of society poses a neoindividualism of a narcissistic type and, moreover, what Lipovetsky called “the second individualist revolution”. The Post-Structuralists, with the deconstruction approach of Derrida, and Paul Virilio, with his thought of the aesthetics of disappearance where speed rules in the political, economic and cultural realms of human existence, are examples of this phenomenon.

I’ll explain the evolution of the concept of modern dialectic in the main figures of the philosophers Fitche, Hegel and Marx.

For Johann Gottlieb Fichte, I, the subject, is derived from all and the logical principles logical of identity and denial, to assert oneself begets opposition – “not me” – and both are subordinated to a principle of total unity. As the self comes into contradiction with himself and opposition to the “not me”, it eliminates this opposition by limiting both flows in an endless process, which is formulated in the dialectic triad: thesis, antithesis, and synthesis. [3]

The German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel applies the term “dialectic” to his philosophical system and its logic focused on the future, contradiction, and change, which replaces the principles of identity and non-contradiction, by the incessant transformation of things and the unity of opposites. Hegel thought that the evolution of the Idea occurs through a dialectical process, i.e., a concept confronts its opposite and as a result of this conflict, rises a third synthesis. The synthesis is more loaded with truth than the previous two opposites. The work of Hegel is based on an idealistic conception of a universal mind that, through evolution, aims to reach the highest limit of self-consciousness and freedom. [4]

The German philosopher Karl Marx applied the concept of dialectic to the social and economic processes. The so-called dialectical materialism of Marx is often considered as a revision of the Hegelian system. This proposed a solution to a widespread problem of economic ends through three concepts: thesis, antithesis, and synthesis. The first was the source of the problem in this property of the  capital concentrated in the bourgeois class. The second, proletarian, class, the creator of the value with their work, was stripped of all means of production. These two, according to Marx, will give as a synthesis communism, the social ownership of the means of production. [5]

Let’s bring to the discussion general systems theory and its importance. The advance of technology exposes the complexity of general systems theory when compared to the modern dialectic.

The general systems theory was conceived by Ludwig von Bertalanffy in the 1940s, in order to form a practical model for conceptualizing the phenomena that the mechanistic reduction of the classical approach to science could not explain. In particular, general systems theory seems to provide a unifying theoretical framework for the natural sciences and the social sciences, needing in so doing to employ concepts such as “organization”, “whole”, “globalization”, and “dynamic interaction”; the linear is replaced by the circular. None of this was easily understandable by the analytical methods of the pure sciences. The individual lost importance in favor of the interdisciplinary approach. [6]

During the 1930s, Wiener worked with doctors and engineers and examined the parallels between human beings and electrical systems. As a result of such research, important concepts of feedback were developed, with the researchers studying more closely those systems that incorporated them.

These concepts of feedback, by which information was introduced to machines, led to the emergence of Cybernetics as the adaptation different from the mechanistic theory. The circularity and feedback processes are passed to the common elements of entire system, and Wiener called them “anti-entropic local phenomena”.

The behavior of a driver’s car on a road would be a clear example of negative feedback, since the driver would receive information from the limits of the road that could produce correcting deviations with the steering wheel. The thermostat would be another example of negative feedback, to which we referred above.

Any feedback would take into account the information on past actions, and with them would determine further actions to follow, creating a structure more complex than the linear or circular causality.

About Feedback

In this type of chain, each link is modified and changes its interaction, and this modification occurs in a circular process known as feedback loop (feedback loop).

We can find examples of the previously articulated concept. Thus, a spider that paralyzes a fly with its stinger is involved in a process of spending a fixed amount of power from “a” to “b”; a jellyfish stinging a human hand can participate in a feedback loop from “a” to “b” and “b” (hand stung) back to “a” (in the form of circle). In the first model the effect of “a” on “b” is not returned to the system (a + b); in the second, the message part of the affected “b” (production) and returned to the system (a + b) as feed-back (received power). The general systems theory holds that transactions are circular and create spirals of exchange that become progressively more complex.

Feedback can be positive or negative.

Positive feedback: Growth of differences – “snowball” – when left to operate, leads to the destruction of the system.

Negative feedback (e.g., a thermostat): Leads to an adaptive behavior or having a purpose, a purpose.

In both cases, there is an anointing of transfer by means of which the received energy is converted into the result, which, in turn, is reintroduced into the system as information about the result.

In the case of negative feedback, the system uses this information to activate its homeostatic mechanisms and to reduce the deviation of the production system and thus maintain a “steady state”.

In the case of positive feedback, the information is used to activate the mechanisms of growth (morphogenic mechanisms) that lead to a disruption of homeostasis and a movement toward change – i.e., the positive feedback serves to increase the deviation of the production.

Therefore, when a system uses negative feedback, the system is auto-corrects and returns to the initial state (i.e., does not change). When a system uses positive feedback, the system goes to another state (change).

Andréi Korotáyev (Андрей Витальевич Коротаев, born in 1961) is an anthropologist, economist, historian, and sociologist, with important contributions to the world system theory and mathematical models of social and economic macrodynamics.

Andrey Korotayev’s major contributions belong to four areas: mathematical models of the dynamics of social, economic, and historical phenomena (cliodynamics).

In the field of cliodynamics, Korotayev proposed one of the most convincing explanations for the doomsday argument of Heinz von Foerster.

In collaboration with his colleagues Artemi Malkov and Daria Khaltourina, Andrey Korotayev showed that, until the 1970s, the hyperbolic growth of the  world population was accompanied by a hyperbolic growth of the second degree of the world’s GDP, from which developed a series of mathematical models which both described this phenomenon as the theory of world system, the correlation between the hyperbolic growth of the world population and the hyperbolic of second degree of global GDP growth, observed until the early 1970s, corresponds to a  positive feedback. (Positive feedback is one of the mechanisms of  feedback by which outcomes or outputs of a system cause cumulative effects at the entrance, in contrast with the negative feedback, where the output causes subtractive effects at the entrance. Contrary to what you may believe, positive feedback is not always desirable, since the “positive” adjective refers to the mechanism, rather than the result.) The non-linear second-order relationship between demographic growth and technological development can be explained according to the following sequence:

•→Increased technological growth, growing the load capacity of the planet → population growth → more people → more potential inventors → acceleration of technological growth → acceleration of the increase of the carrying capacity of the planet → faster population growth → acceleration of the increase of potential inventors → faster technological growth → increasing the capacity of the Earth to support people… and so on. On the other hand, Korotayev’s research has shown that since 1970 the world system never develops hyperbolically; its development diverges more and more from the “regime of inflation” and currently is moving “away from singularity”, rather than “toward singularity.”

Marshall Goldsmith (born March 20, 1949) is an American leadership coach and author of management-related literature. He pioneered the personalized use of the FeedForward as a leadership development tool. The FeedForward assessment tool was created by Marshall Goldsmith with the intention of providing to individuals, teams, and organizations suggestions that help them, in the future, to make a positive change in their behavior. There is a fundamental problem with all types and forms of feedback: focus on the past, on what has already happened, not on the infinite variety of opportunities that could happen in the future. As such, the feedback can be limited and static, rather than dynamic and expansive. The FeedForward of Marshall Goldsmith helps you to predict and to focus on a positive future, not on a frustrated past. In training athletes using ‘feedforward’ (future feedback), the basketball players are taught to see the ball going into the ring and imagine the perfect shot. To give you ideas on how you can be even more successful, the FeedForward evaluative tool from Marshall Goldsmith can increase your chances of success in the future.

Marshall Goldsmith Library:http://www.marshallgoldsmithlibrary.com/

The pluslectic method is converted input, based on the theory of the system and concepts such as positive feedback, the feedforward, and Korotayev front-loading. The dialectical process evolves through concepts, hypotheses, ideas, and where the initial step is always positive (feedforward), accompanied with growth within a system of positive feedback, where the outcome of a positive feedback is one greater amplification which makes a small signal into a major change in the status of the system. Amplification generally grows in exponential systems in a first-order or second-order hyperbolic way.So evolution creates breaks in a positive and fast way, leading to shifts from one system to another system. Such systems are open to differences and are not controlled by negative feedback (which characterizes closed systems), where is the entropy of the system common.

The pluslectic is a philosophical view of how to operate a model of thinking of high civilizations of aliens or humans in the future, which would tell you as plus-humans, if this condition occurs with huge advances in engineering biogenetics, to reduce all the emotions and negative thoughts, where even before any negative events occur, humans would be capable of pre-feeding positively, with a vision of feedforward.

The pluslectic is a concept that is defined as the paradigm for highly developed post-humans, as opposed to the concept of dialecic from the 19th century, and the ideas of the 20th century, still in the generation of the great tales of humankind. Post-modernism and late modernity during the early 21st century are in crisis of change, setting the stage for the birth of new concepts oriented toward the future.

Images by Pedro Villanueva: Image #1 is his symbol for the Pluslectric; Image #2 is his artistic visionary representation of the concept.

NOTES

[1]  The Sublime Object of Ideology (1989). Slavoj Zizek.

[2]  The Antichrist. Friedrich Nietzsche.

[3]. Basement of all the Doctrine of Science (1784). Johann Gottlieb Fitche.

[4] The Phenomenology of Spirit (1807). G. W. Friedrich Hegel.

[5] Capital (1867). Karl Marx.

[6] General System Theory: Foundations,  Development, Applications (1968). George Braziller.

References

Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics. Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Moscú, Russia Publishers, 2006

Korotayev A., Malkov A., Khaltourina D. Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Compact Macromodels of the World System Growth. Moscow: Russia Publishers, 2006;

Korotayev A. V. A Compact Macromodel of World System Evolution // Journal of 
World-Systems Research 11/1 (2005): 79–93.

Markov A., Korotayev A.Phanerozoic marine biodiversity follows a hyperbolic trend // Palaeoworld. Volume 16, Issue 4, December 2007, Pages 311-318;

Markov A., Korotayev A. Hyperbolic growth of marine and continental biodiversity through the Phanerozoic and community evolution // Journal of General Biology. Volume 69, 2008. N 3, pp. 175–194

Pedro Villanueva wasborn in Havana, 1974. He graduated from the Academy of Fine Arts in San Alejandro. He writes in an approach to thought known as Pluslectic, which is in line with today’s world and the vision towards the future.

Pedro Villanueva underwent a study bootcamp with FounderSpace in San Francisco USA. He lives in the Chilean Patagonia, Punta Arenas. Building upon the ideas of Vinton Cerf, his research work aims at the creation of an interplanetary network called “InterPlanetNet”, which aims to extend the Internet into outer space. Pedro Villanueva works on the idea of the FaceSpace, a social network of space.

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U.S. Transhumanist Party General Discussion Thread for the First Quarter of 2018

U.S. Transhumanist Party General Discussion Thread for the First Quarter of 2018

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The purpose of this post is to facilitate member comments pertaining to transhumanism and the U.S. Transhumanist Party, which might not specifically fit the subjects of any other post or article on the U.S. Transhumanist Party website. This is the place for members to offer suggestions or converse about any areas of emerging technologies and their political, moral, societal, cultural, and esthetic implications. The general discussion thread is also an ideal location to suggest or propose platform planks that may be considered for future platform voting.

The U.S. Transhumanist Party will endeavor to open one of these general comment threads per quarter. This comment thread pertains to the months of January, February, and March 2018.

Type in your comments below. Please note that, to protect against spambots, the first comment by any individual will be moderated. After passing moderation, a civil commenter should be able to post comments without future moderation – although we cannot guarantee that the technical aspect of this functionality will work as intended 100% of the time.

New Clinical Study May Be the World’s First Cure for Alzheimer’s Disease – Press Release from Libella Gene Therapeutics

New Clinical Study May Be the World’s First Cure for Alzheimer’s Disease – Press Release from Libella Gene Therapeutics

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Libella Gene Therapeutics


ORLANDO, Fla.Jan. 10, 2018 /PRNewswire/ — Libella Gene Therapeutics LLC will conduct an OUS (outside the United States) clinical trial in Cartagena, Colombia, using gene therapy to reverse age-related diseases, starting with Alzheimer’s. Unlike traditional drugs, which tend to be taken for months or years at a time, gene therapy interventions are intended to be one-off treatments that tackle a disease at its source, repairing faulty DNA and allowing the body to fix itself.

Every day 228 Americans die from Alzheimer’s disease, and there is currently no known treatment or cure. Gene therapy offers the ability to permanently correct a disease at its most basic level, the genome, and could offer cures for many conditions that are currently considered incurable. According to Dr. Bill Andrews, the scientist leading the study, “Human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT) is an enzyme whose expression plays a role in cellular aging and is normally repressed in cells, resulting in progressive shortening of telomeres. Telomerase gene therapy in adult and old mice delays aging and increases longevity without increasing cancer.”

By inducing telomerase, Dr. Andrews and Libella Gene Therapeutics hope to lengthen telomeres in the body’s cells. The clinical trial will treat a limited number of patients using the gene therapy treatment, which has been demonstrated as safe, with minimal adverse reactions in over 186 clinical trials.

Dr. Andrews has been featured in Popular Science, on the “Today” show and in numerous documentaries on the topic of life extension. As one of the principal discoverers of both the RNA and protein components of human telomerase, Dr. Andrews was awarded second place as “National Inventor of the Year” in 1997. He earned a Ph.D. in molecular and population genetics at the University of Georgia in 1981. He has served in multiple senior science and technology roles at leading bioscience corporations. Dr. Andrews is a named inventor on over 50 U.S.-issued patents on telomerase and is the author of numerous scientific research studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

On why the company decided to conduct its clinical research project outside the United States, Libella Gene Therapeutics president Dr. Jeff Mathis said, “Traditional clinical trials in the U.S. can take years and millions — or even billions — of dollars. The research and techniques that have been proven to work are ready now. We believe we have the scientist, the technology, the physicians, and the lab partners that are necessary to get this trial done faster in Colombia.”

The clinical trial is prepping to begin in the first quarter of 2018 and will be conducted at MediHelp Services Clinic in beautiful and tourist-friendly Cartagena, Colombia. The state-of-the-art facility has hosted international public figures including athletes, celebrities and politicians. Dr. Javier Hernandez, MediHelp’s medical director, will oversee the trial.

Colombia’s clinical research regulation is friendly to gene therapy trials, with one of the fastest approval times in Latin America for this kind of research. The trial’s clinical study design; regulatory, operation and logistical support; project management; statistical analysis; and study monitoring services will be provided by LATAM Market Access Inc., a Florida-based clinical research company.

About Libella Gene Therapeutics LLC 
With a mission to reverse aging and cure all age-related diseasesstarting with Alzheimer’sLibella Gene Therapeutics has exclusively licensed the AAV Reverse (hTERT) transcriptase enzyme technology from Sierra Sciences and Dr. Bill Andrews. More information at www.libellagenetherapeutics.com.

About LATAM Market Access Inc.
Dedicated to helping innovative life science companies gather cost-effective clinical data at leading research institutions, the company provides clinical study design; regulatory, operational and logistics support; project management; statistical analysis; and study monitoring services. More information at www.latammarketaccess.com.

 

New Year’s Message and Prospects for Anti-Aging Biomedical Research in 2018 – Article by Victor Bjoerk

New Year’s Message and Prospects for Anti-Aging Biomedical Research in 2018 – Article by Victor Bjoerk

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Victor Bjoerk


Happy new 2018, a new year and new opportunities to do things! Setting aside the arbitrary fact of how we measure time, it is nevertheless important to reflect back on the past year!

During 2017 over 40 million people died world-wide of causes that would not have happened to them if they had been biologically less than 40 years old. I think it’s completely superfluous to add that this is unethical on all levels and will eventually go down in history books like the Black Death.

There are widespread worries about global risks in everything from politics to environment, however let’s look at the statistics as I like to point out: If you are a young person in your 20s or 30s living in the western world, and you don’t age but just carry out your normal daily life with all the normal risks, you are approximately expected to live 3000-5000 years, depending on country. Also there is a lot of improvement in living standards in the rest of the world, so most countries are heading for the same demographic problem.

So the world is a very safe place to be if you are biologically young!

During 2018 I will continue to follow the biomedical research that is ongoing, and I am co-organizing the Eurosymposium on Healthy Aging in Brussels in November of this year, to bring together researchers, investors, and other goal-oriented people active in the field of aging research.

Before that, in only 2.5 months, we have the Undoing Aging conference in Berlin, which is rapidly approaching starting on the 15th of March this year.

Now there are many other interesting conferences also, but these are at least the major ones I have in mind right now when writing, since I’m not in a position to attend everything (I wish I could).

During the upcoming years, we will see a vast market flourishing to try to repair aging damage in people and extend life; some will be purposeful deceits, other things will work great in mice but not in humans; moreover, there are therapies that will work but will have unacceptable side effects. Some discoveries will make great headlines and increase our understanding, perhaps even lead to a Nobel Prize, but be useless when it comes to any reasonably short-term applications. Media will continue to publish a lot of unspecific articles about “how you will live to 150” – simplifying science and creating hype and cult of personality. Some scientists will continue to pop up in media and spread false pessimism that nothing can be done about aging. But eventually what is going to happen is that translational medicine will continue to grow and generate an incremental improvement, what has been popularized as a “longevity escape velocity”, because here we have a complex problem which no single intervention will fix. 

The question it all boils down to is, “How soon?” What can YOU do to have an impact here? How do we run clinical trials on the elderly while avoiding pitfalls that can easily hurt the field?

And here’s the thing I personally care about: there are a lot of scientists working on things that can be of use to combat pathologies and extend lifespan in the elderly, but they are themselves unaware of these applications! I’ve seen it so many times to my surprise. Is it due to archaic academic structures or a lack of transdisciplinary thinking? Nevertheless it’s an observation.

What 2018 brings remains unknown at this moment of writing, but I wish all of my friends to really make the best of it!

Victor Bjoerk has worked for the Gerontology Research Group, the Longevity Reporter, and the Fraunhofer-Institut für Zelltherapie und Immunologie. He has promoted awareness throughout Europe of emerging biomedical research and the efforts to reverse biological aging. 

Free Stuff – Evidence of an Emerging Possible Post-Scarcity Economy – Article by David J. Kelley

Free Stuff – Evidence of an Emerging Possible Post-Scarcity Economy – Article by David J. Kelley

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David J. Kelley


I was talking to my wife on my last trip to Seattle and found that she and my children had picked up a new hobby – ‘Free Stuff’. That is, there is this new project called the ‘Buy Nothing Project’ – focused on people in communities giving things to each other.  While we still don’t know if we will end up with a dystopian Big Brother AI-powered government or some other dystopian future, we can see evidence that a lot of the possible futures are in play, including the idea of a ‘Post-Scarcity Economy’.  While this is only circumstantial evidence, I would argue that it is likely that the that fact projects like this are being successful, is evidence of a post-scarcity economy forming.  There are a lot of things to overcome, most of which are human-powered essential risks in my opinion, but the fact that I see projects like this gives me a lot of hope for us.

So here is what they say about the project so far:

“Buy Nothing. Give Freely. Share Creatively.

The Buy Nothing Project began when two friends, Rebecca Rockefeller and Liesl Clark, created an experimental hyper-local gift economy on Bainbridge Island, WA, in July, 2013. Since then, it has become a worldwide social movement, with groups in 20 nations. Our local groups form gift economies that are complementary and parallel to local cash economies; whether people join because they’d like to quickly get rid of things that are cluttering their lives, or simply to save money by getting things for free, they quickly discover that our groups are not just another free recycling platform. A gift economy’s real wealth [are] the people involved and the web of connections that forms to support them. Time and again, members of our groups find themselves spending more and more time interacting in our groups, finding new ways to give back to the community that has brought humor, entertainment, and yes, free stuff into their lives. The Buy Nothing Project is about setting the scarcity model of our cash economy aside in favor of creatively and collaboratively sharing the abundance around us.”

You can read more about this project at and even find a local group here: https://buynothingproject.org/

David J. Kelley is the CTO for the tech venture capital firm Tracy Hall LLC, focused on companies that contribute to high-density sustainable community technologies, as well as the principal scientist with Artificial General Intelligence Inc. David also volunteers as the Chairman of the Transhuman National Committee board. David’s career has been built on technology trends and bleeding each research primarily around the capitalization of product engineering where those new products can be brought to market and made profitable. David’s work on Artificial Intelligence in particular – the ICOM research project with AGI Inc. – is focused on emotion-based systems that are designed to work around human constraints and help remove the ‘human’ element from the design of AI systems, including military applications for advanced self-aware cognitive systems that do not need human interaction.

DNA as the Original Blockchain – Article by Alex Lightman

DNA as the Original Blockchain – Article by Alex Lightman

Alex Lightman


I think of DNA as the original Blockchain, code for 3D printing a billion years old.

Thinking of DNA as reusable software might enable us to increase our average life span by 800%.

If you think of DNA as code and don’t get distracted by phenotypes (appearances) and remember the First Rule of Engineering is “Steal, Don’t Invent”, you can find some pretty interesting code that is almost human.

Did you know that there are big mammals that can live over 200 years? And sharks that can live 400-600 years?

Mammals are all genetically over 98% the same DNA (the biological Blockchain) as Homo sapiens sapiens (humans).

One mammal able to live over 200 years is the Bowhead whale. The Greenland shark is known to live over 400 years. Sharks are not mammals, but you would be shocked at the genetic similarity. Start here to learn more.

I think we should breed vast herds of Bowhead whales and Greenland sharks and domesticate them in Seastead Communities, and maintain multi-century interspecies communication, based on the protocols developed by my old friend John Lilly, inventor of the isolation tank.

We have already identified the genetic components of longevity, which include high resistance to cancer.

Did you know this? This is why we need Transhumanist Party candidates and elected officials: we should be talking about and focused on life expectancy and cancer resistance. Half of Americans get cancer and half of those die of cancer – over 600,000 a year!

Genetic Causes of Longevity in Bowhead Whales

It was previously believed the more cells present in an organism, the greater the chances of mutations that cause age-related diseases and cancer.

Although the bowhead whale has thousands of times more cells than other mammals, the whale has a much higher resistance to cancer and aging. In 2015, scientists from the US and UK were able to successfully map the whale’s genome.

Through comparative analysis, two alleles that could be responsible for the whale’s longevity were identified.

These two specific gene mutations linked to the Bowhead whale’s ability to live longer are the ERCC1 gene and the proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) gene. ERCC1 is linked to DNA repair as well as increased cancer resistance. PCNA is also important in DNA repair.

These mutations enable bowhead whales to better repair DNA damage, allowing for greater resistance to cancer.

The whale’s genome may also reveal physiological adaptations such as having low metabolic rates compared to other mammals.

Changes in the gene UCP1, a gene involved in thermoregulation, can explain differences in the metabolic rates in cells.

Alex Lightman, Campaign Director for the California Transhumanist Party, has 25 years of management and social innovation experience and 15 years of chairman and chief executive experience. He is an award-winning inventor with multiple U.S. patents issued or pending and author of over one million published words, including the first book on 4G wireless, and over 150 articles in major publications. He chaired and organized 17 international conferences with engineers, scientists, and government officials since 2002, with the intention of achieving policy breakthroughs related to innovation. He is a world-class innovator and recipient of the first Economist magazine Readers’ Choice Award for “The Innovation that will Most Radically Change the World over the Decade 2010 to 2020” (awarded Oct. 21, 2010, out of 4,000 initial suggestions and votes over 5 months from 200 countries, and from 32 judges). He is the recipient of the 2nd Reader’s Award (the posthumous recipient announced 10/21/2011 was Steve Jobs). He is also the winner of the only SGI Internet 3D contest (both Entertainment and Grand Prize) out of 800 contestants.

Social innovation work includes repeatedly putting almost unknown technologies and innovation-accelerating policies that can leverage the abilities of humanity into the mainstream of media, business, government, foundations, and standards bodies, including virtual reality, augmented reality, Internet Protocol version 6, and 4G wireless broadband, open spectrum, technology transfer to developing countries, unified standards, crowd-sourcing, and collective intelligence, via over 40 US government agencies, over 40 national governments, and via international entities including the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Political credentials include a national innovation plan entitled “The Acceleration of American Innovation” for the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, work for U.S. Senator Paul E. Tsongas (D-MA) and on several state campaigns and U.S. presidential campaigns for Democratic candidates (Gary Hart, Richard Gephardt), presentations to the United Nations, and advisory services to the governments of Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, New Zealand, Australia, Philippines, Japan, China, Korea, and India, as well as to the U.S. Congress, the White House (via the Office of Management and Budget), the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Defense Information Systems Agency, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Mr. Lightman is trained as an engineer at MIT and as a prospective diplomat and policy analyst at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.

Announcement of U.S. Transhumanist Party Collaboration with the Zero State (ZS) and Participation in the ZS Alternate Reality Game

Announcement of U.S. Transhumanist Party Collaboration with the Zero State (ZS) and Participation in the ZS Alternate Reality Game

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Gennady Stolyarov II


The U.S. Transhumanist Party is pleased to announce its incipient collaboration with a Social Futurist community based in the United Kingdom – the Zero State (ZS) – described as “an organization formed in 2011 to work toward the establishment of a pro-technology, Transhumanist, distributed, virtual State. ZS’ motto is ‘Positive Social Change Through Technology’.” As one of the Zero State’s co-founders, Dirk Bruere, explains, the primary meaning of the name “Zero State” is “the lowest energy state of a system, the place to which everything returns when the energy runs out.”

Given that the U.S. Transhumanist Party strongly supports such pro-technology initiatives as advocated by the Zero State, as well as distributed systems for participation in political processes, throughout its Platform (particularly Article III, Sections V, VI, VIII, IX, XIII) and also supports various forms of political, economic, and cultural experimentation in Article III, Section XXII, our collaboration with the Zero State is a logical fit for implementing our own vision for as many polities throughout the world which open themselves to ambitious experiments in paradigm-shifting technologies.

The most recent incarnation of the Zero State is that of an Alternate Reality Game (ARG), whose premise is described on this page. The game is pursued by twelve Houses, described as follows:

The Zero State is organised into twelve Houses, and each of those Houses began with twelve Founding Members.

The first five of those are the Core members, each of whom leads their own crew of “subsid” (subsidiary/affiliated) members. The five Core members of each House together comprise a kind of meta-team, known as the House’s Core Team. That Core Team is tasked with establishing their House in the years 12017-12018, by recruiting, developing the House’s internal culture and traditions, and working on projects known as Missions.

Dr. M. Amon Twyman (Ámon Ásentir), who co-founded the Zero State, has kindly designated the use of one of the twelve Zero State Houses – House Rhadamanth – for activities that would further the goals of the U.S. Transhumanist Party. The announcement of this development is available here and reads as follows:

House Rhadamanth has now been joined by Gennady Stolyarov II, who has assumed the Core role of “Anankes Atraktos” (a Greek term from Plato‘s Republic, meaning “Spindle of Necessity“). Gennady is Chairperson of the US Transhumanist Party, Chief Executive of the Nevada Transhumanist Party, and much more besides. This connection reflects a major development in House Rhadamanth’s focus and culture, which has now expanded from drones and robotics to Transhumanism in general, and which hinges on direct support for and collaboration with the Transhumanist Party, both in the US and internationally.

House Rhadamanth is now seeking both additional Core Members and Subsidiary Members to populate it. The purpose of this arrangement will be to engage transhumanists, futurists, and life-extensionists to pursue, in a “gamified” manner, the projects that will advance the objectives of the U.S. Transhumanist Party in the real world, all the while strengthening the network of connections and beneficial interactions among future-oriented thinkers throughout the world. If you are interested in joining, please e-mail Gennady Stolyarov II here. We are interested in 10 other individuals who would be able to devote a reasonable amount of time to actively advancing ongoing projects such as the following:

  • (1) The U.S. Transhumanist Party infographic project, which it is hoped will result in detailed visual representations that would, in essence, serve as a map of the terrain of transhumanist and life-extensionist organizations, social-media pages, and key individuals.
  • (2) Participation in distributed computing projects (for instance, Folding@home) aimed at fundamental research that could help accelerate the arrival of cures to various diseases. The U.S. Transhumanist Party previously announced this activism project here.
  • (3) Campaigns for writing and advocacy on particular issues – for instance, rejuvenation biotechnology research, rights of patients of rare diseases to pursue experimental treatments, or the official recognition of biological aging as a disease.

We welcome ideas for any other projects that could be pursued in this “gamified” format as well. Much of the Alternate Reality Game remains to be developed, but the early participants will have the opportunity to shape many of its parameters and contents. The U.S. Transhumanist Party sees promise in this additional way to strengthen ties within the international transhumanist movement and explore opportunities for collaborative endeavors among transhumanists and futurists of various persuasions and backgrounds.

Gennady Stolyarov II is the Chairman of the United States Transhumanist Party. Read more about Mr. Stolyarov here.

Review of Philip Tetlock’s “Superforecasting” by Adam Alonzi

Review of Philip Tetlock’s “Superforecasting” by Adam Alonzi

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Adam Alonzi


Alexander Consulting the Oracle of Apollo, Louis Jean Francois Lagrenée. 1789, Oil on Canvas.

“All who drink of this treatment recover in a short time, except those whom it does not help, who all die. It is obvious, therefore, that it fails only in incurable cases.”

-Galen

Before the advent of evidence-based medicine, most physicians took an attitude like Galen’s toward their prescriptions. If their remedies did not work, surely the fault was with their patient. For centuries scores of revered doctors did not consider putting bloodletting or trepanation to the test. Randomized trials to evaluate the efficacy of a treatment were not common practice. Doctors like Archie Cochrane, who fought to make them part of standard protocol, were met with fierce resistance. Philip Tetlock, author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015), contends that the state of forecasting in the 21st century is strikingly similar to medicine in the 19th. Initiatives like the Good Judgement Project (GJP), a website that allows anyone to make predictions about world events, have shown that even a discipline that is largely at the mercy of chance can be put on a scientific footing.

More than once the author reminds us that the key to success in this endeavor is not what you think or what you know, but how you think. For Tetlock pundits like Thomas Friedman are the “exasperatingly evasive” Galens of the modern era. In the footnotes he lets the reader know he chose Friedman as target strictly because of his prominence. There are many like him. Tetlock’s academic work comparing random selections with those of professionals led media outlets to publish, and a portion of their readers to conclude, that expert opinion is no more accurate than a dart-throwing chimpanzee. What the undiscerning did not consider, however, is not all of the experts who participated failed to do better than chance.

Daniel Kahneman hypothesized that “attentive readers of the New York Times…may be only slightly worse” than these experts corporations and governments so handsomely recompense. This turned out to be a conservative guess. The participants in the Good Judgement Project outperformed all control groups, including one composed of professional intelligence analysts with access to classified information. This hodgepodge of retired bird watchers, unemployed programmers, and news junkies did 30% better than the “pros.” More importantly, at least to readers who want to gain a useful skillset as well as general knowledge, the managers of the GJP have identified qualities and ways of thinking that separate “superforecasters” from the rest of us. Fortunately they are qualities we can all cultivate.

While the merits of his macroeconomic theories can be debated, John Maynard Keynes was an extremely successful investor during one of the bleakest periods in international finance. This was no doubt due in part to his willingness to make allowance for new information and his grasp of probability. Participants in the GJP display open-mindedness, an ability and willingness to repeatedly update their forecasts, a talent to neither under- nor over-react to new information by putting it into a broader context,  and a predilection for mathematical thinking (though those interviewed admitted they rarely used an explicit equation to calculate their answer). The figures they give also tend to be more precise than their less successful peers. This “granularity” may seem ridiculous at first. I must confess that when I first saw estimates on the GJP of 34% or 59%, I would chuckle a bit. How, I asked myself, is a single percentage point meaningful? Aren’t we just dealing with rough approximations? Apparently not.

Tetlock reminds us that the GJP does not deal with nebulous questions like “Who will be president in 2027?” or “Will a level 9 earthquake hit California two years from now?” However, there are questions that are not, in the absence of unforeseeable Black Swan events, completely inscrutable. Who will win the Mongolian presidency? Will Uruguay sign a trade agreement with Laos in the next six months? These are parts of highly complex systems, but they can be broken down into tractable subproblems.

Using numbers instead of words like “possibly”, “probably”, “unlikely”, etc., seems unnatural. It gives us wiggle room and plausible deniability. They also cannot be put on any sort of record to keep score of how well we’re doing. Still, to some it may seem silly, pedantic, or presumptuous. If Joint Chiefs of Staff had given the exact figure they had in mind (3 to 1) instead of the “fair chance” given to Kennedy, the Bay of Pigs debacle may have never transpired. Because they represent ranges of values instead of single numbers, words can be retroactively stretched or shrunk to make blunders seem a little less avoidable. This is good for advisors looking to cover their hides by hedging their bets, but not so great for everyone else.

If American intelligence agencies had presented the formidable but vincible figure of 70% instead of a “slam dunk” to Congress, a disastrous invasion and costly occupation would have been prevented. At this point it is hard not to see the invasion as anything as a mistake, but even amidst these emotions we must be wary of hindsight. Still, a 70% chance of being right means there is a 30% chance of being wrong. It is hardly a “slam dunk.” No one would feel completely if an oncologist told them they are 70% sure the growth is not malignant. There are enormous consequences to sloppy communications. However, those with vested interests are more than content with this approach if it agrees with them, even if it ends up harming them.

When Nate Silver put the odds of the 2008 election in Obama’s favor, he was panned by Republicans as a pawn of the liberal media. He was quickly reviled by Democrats when he foresaw a Republican takeover of the Senate. It is hard to be a wizard when the king, his court, and all the merry peasants sweeping the stables would not know a confirmation bias from their right foot. To make matters worse, confidence is widely equated with capability. This seems to be doubly true of groups of people, particularly when they are choosing a leader. A mutual-fund manager who tells his clients they will see great returns on a company is viewed as stronger than a Poindexter prattling on about Bayesian inference and risk management.

The GJP’s approach has not spread far — yet. At this time most pundits, consultants, and self-proclaimed sages do not explicitly quantify their success rates, but this does not stop corporations, NGOs, and institutions at all levels of government from paying handsomely for the wisdom of untested soothsayers. Perhaps they have a few diplomas, but most cannot provide compelling evidence for expertise in haruspicy (sans the sheep’s liver). Given the criticality of accurate analyses to saving time and money, it would seem as though a demand for methods to improve and assess the quality of foresight would arise. Yet for the most part individuals and institutions continue to happily grope in the dark, unaware of the necessity for feedback when they misstep — afraid of having their predictions scrutinized or having to take the pains to scrutinize their predictions.

David Ferrucci is wary of the “guru model” to settling disputes. No doubt you’ve witnessed or participated in this kind of whimpering fracas: one person presents a Krugman op-ed to debunk a Niall Ferguson polemic, which is then countered with a Tommy Friedman book, which was recently excoriated  by the newest leader of the latest intellectual cult to come out of the Ivy League. In the end both sides leave frustrated. Krugman’s blunders regarding the economic prospects of the Internet, deflation, the “imminent” collapse of the euro (said repeatedly between 2010 and 2012) are legendary. Similarly, Ferguson, who strongly petitioned the Federal Reserve to reconsider quantitative easing, lest the United States suffer Weimar-like inflation, has not yet been vindicated. He and his colleagues responded in the same way as other embarrassed prophets: be patient, it has not happened, but it will! In his defense, more than one clever person has criticized the way governments calculate their inflation rates…

Paul Ehrlich, a darling of environmentalist movement, has screeched about the detonation of a “population bomb” for decades. Civilization was set to collapse between 15 and 30 years from 1970. During the interim 100 to 200 million would annually starve to death, by the year 2000 no crude oil would be left, the prices of raw materials would skyrocket, and the planet would be in the midst of a perpetual famine. Tetlock does not mention Ehrlich, but he is, particularly given his persisting influence on Greens, as or more deserving of a place in this hall of fame as anyone else. Larry Kudlow continued to assure the American people that the Bush tax breaks were producing massive economic growth. This continued well into 2008, when he repeatedly told journalists that America was not in a recession and the Bush boom was “alive and well.” For his stupendous commitment to his contention in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, he was nearly awarded a seat in the Trump cabinet.

This is not to say a mistake should become the journalistic equivalent of a scarlet letter. Kudlow’s slavish adherence to his axioms is not unique. Ehrlich’s blindness to technological advances is not uncommon, even in an era dominated by technology. By failing to set a timeline or give detailed causal accounts, many believe they have predicted every crash since they learned how to say the word. This is likely because they begin each day with the same mantra: “the market will crash.”  Yet through an automatically executed routine of psychological somersaults, they do not see they were right only once and wrong dozens, hundreds, or thousands of times. This kind of person is much more deserving of scorn than a poker player who boasts about his victories, because he is (likely) also aware of how often he loses. At least he’s not fooling himself. The severity of Ehrlich’s misfires is a reminder of what happens when someone looks too far ahead while assuming all things will remain the same. Ceteris paribus exists only in laboratories and textbooks.

Axioms are fates accepted by different people as truth, but the belief in Fate (in the form of retroactive narrative construction) is a nearly ubiquitous stumbling block to clear thinking. We may be far removed from Sophocles, but the unconscious human drive to create sensible narratives is not peculiar to fifth-century B.C. Athens. A questionnaire given to students at Northwestern showed that most believed things had turned out for the best even if they had gotten into their first pick. From an outsider’s perspective this is probably not true. In our cocoons we like to think we are in the right place either through the hand of fate or through our own choices. Atheists are not immune to this Panglossian habit. Our brains are wired for stories, but the stories we tell ourselves about ourselves seldom come out without distortions. We can gain a better outside view, which allows us to see situations from perspectives other than our own, but only through regular practice with feedback. This is one of the reasons groups are valuable.

Francis Galton asked 787 villagers to guess the weight of an ox hanging in the market square. The average of their guesses (1,197 lbs) turned out to be remarkably close to its actual weight (1,198 lbs). Scott Page has said “diversity trumps ability.” This is a tad bold, since legions of very different imbeciles will never produce anything of value, but there is undoubtedly a benefit to having a group with more than one point of view. This was tested by the GJP. Teams performed better than lone wolves by a significant margin (23% to be exact). Partially as a result of encouraging one another and building a culture of excellence, and partially from the power of collective intelligence.

“No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.”

-Helmuth von Moltke

“Everyone has a plan ’till they get punched in the mouth.”

-Mike Tyson

When Archie Cochrane was told he had cancer by his surgeon, he prepared for death. Type 1 thinking grabbed hold of him and did not doubt the diagnosis. A pathologist later told him the surgeon was wrong. The best of us, under pressure, fall back on habitual modes of thinking. This is another reason why groups are useful (assuming all their members do not also panic). Organizations like the GJP and the Millennium Project are showing how well collective intelligence systems can perform. Helmuth von Moltke and Mike Tyson aside, a better motto, substantiated by a growing body of evidence, comes from Dwight  Eisenhower: “plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”

Adam Alonzi is a writer, biotechnologist, documentary maker, futurist, inventor, programmer, and author of the novels A Plank in Reason and Praying for Death: A Zombie Apocalypse. He is an analyst for the Millennium Project, the Head Media Director for BioViva Sciences, and Editor-in-Chief of Radical Science News. Listen to his podcasts here. Read his blog here.

We are the Lifespan – Video and Commentary by the Life Extension Advocacy Foundation

We are the Lifespan – Video and Commentary by the Life Extension Advocacy Foundation

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Life Extension Advocacy Foundation


The U.S. Transhumanist Party is pleased to share this message and video from our allies at LEAF – the Life Extension Advocacy Foundation. The video includes a short clip of remarks from U.S. Transhumanist Party Chairman Gennady Stolyarov II, taken from his video for the “I am the Lifespan” campaign.


As you might remember, during the month of October (often called Longevity Month) we at LEAF were accepting videos to hear your reasons why defeating the diseases of aging is so important — and hear from you we did!

Dozens of videos poured in, and this #GivingTuesday we at LEAF are so proud to share with you all a video that shows how strong we can be when we join forces for longer, healthier lives — how together #WeAreTheLifespan.

Thank you so much for raising your voice with us in support of longevity research, and if you wish to continue to help us please feel free to join our Hero campaign or to participate in Facebook’s #GivingTuesday donation match by clicking any of the donate buttons on our Facebook page or posts. If you want to get creative, you can even make your own fundraisers easily on Facebook on posts or with a live video.

Finally, to illustrate the importance of speaking freely on what you care about, we are pleased to let you know of the developments related to the recent Open Consultation on the 13th draft programme of work of the WHO. As we wrote not long ago, the problems related to population aging and corresponding health and social issues were left out of the draft, and we invited the members of the community to step in and recommend an improvement.

90% of responses during the Open Consultation (out of around 400 responses) underlined the need to make healthy longevity one of the priorities for the 13th programme of work, and the WHO have recognized this. A joint effort of many pro-longevity organizations made that happen.

Each voice matters. Your voice matters. So please, keep being active and vocal, and let’s become the generation who can say: “I helped set all people free from age-related diseases. I helped defeat aging.”

Thank you, and happy #GivingTuesday!

Space Seascape – Painting by Ekaterinya Vladinakova

Space Seascape – Painting by Ekaterinya Vladinakova

Ekaterinya Vladinakova


 

“Space Seascape” by Ekaterinya Vladinakova

Left-click on the image for a fuller view. You can also download this painting (4846 by 7000 pixels) here.

Tranquil and contemplative, this painting of an alien moon seascape by Ekaterinya Vladinakova evokes worlds that humans could one day discover or create through terraforming. The vivid colors and stunning imagery of Vladinakova’s work inspire us to strive toward a future where the exploration of these worlds could become a reality.

Ekaterinya Vladinakova is an accomplished digital painter. See her gallery here and her DeviantArt page here.